AD ALTA
JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH
Figure 1: Population development of Czech Republic and
Slovakia from year 2000 to year 2015 and prognosis for 2020
Source: own work of authors based on Eurostat data
Fertility in each of the countries is also an important
demographic indicator. In most industrialized countries
declining in fertility rates is the main reason for aging
populations. (Fougere, Merette, 1999) We have selected fertility
rates for the total fertility rate (Figure 2), which represents the
average number of live births per one woman throughout her
reproduction period, while maintaining the fertility level of the
reference year and assuming zero mortal
ity. (Megyesi, Bačo,
Poništ, 2012)
Based on the above data, it can be stated that the development of
total fertility is volatile, but in the current period but also within
the forecasts it is possible to expect an increase.
Figure 2: Total fertility rate of Czech Republic and Slovakia
from year 2000 to year 2015 and prognosis for 2020
Source: own work of authors based on Eurostat data
It is very important to know the structure of the population of the
state: the percentage of the population in the pre-productive age
(0-14 years of life), productive age (15-64 years of life) and
post-productive age (65+ years of life).
The changes within the structure of the population in the Czech
Republic and Slovakia can be seen in Figure 3. It also includes
the calculated forecasts from the Eurostat database for the 2020.
Both monitored countries link the trend of a gradual decline in
the number of productive inhabitants, a more pronounced
increase in the number of post-productive populations and a
decrease in the number of pre-productive populations.
This phenomenon defines the first problem, namely that the total
number of the economically inactive population reaches almost
the same value as the total number of the economically active
population, which ultimately poses a serious threat to the
economy linked to the absence of labor force.
Figure 3: Development of demographic structure of population
by age group of Czech Republic and Slovakia from year 2000 to
year 2015 and prognosis for 2020
Source: own work of authors based on Eurostat data
The aging of the population is not a problem only in the Czech
Republic and the Slovak Republic but also throughout the
European Union. According to the prognosis of United Nations
World Population Prospects (Figure 4), post-productive
population should become the fastest growing age group. It is
necessary to reflect on how these changes in the structure of the
population should be linked to the ever-changing conditions in
the labor market.
Figure 4: Prognosis of demographic structure of population by
age group of European union for years 2025 and 2050
Source: own work of authors based on United Nations World
Population Prospects
The labor market situation determines demographic indicators.
Based on the data obtained from the statistical databases, we
have created a table of indicators in Table 1 to reflect the level of
economic burden. To calculate these indicators (Mládek, 2006)
we used the following formulas:
=
− (0−14)+− (65+)
Productive age group (15−64)
∗100
(1)
=
− (0−14)
Productive age group
∗100
(2)
=
− (65+)
Productive age group (15−64)
∗100
(3)
The first monitored index was the Economic dependency ratio.
The highest value of this index was in the Czech Republic in
2015. The prognosis shows that this should increase more. The
value of this index points to the ratio of the economic burden of
the economically active population. In the Czech Republic, this
index reached 50.8 in 2015, representing approximately 51
productive inhabitants, working as if 100 people worked. In
Slovakia, this index is significantly lower, creating a positive
image for the future.
Young age dependency ratio and Old age dependency ratio are
the other two monitored indexes. By comparing the two
analyzed countries, it can be argued that the Slovak Republic,
despite the increase in both indexes of dependency, have more
favorable result than the Czech Republic.
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Number
Year
Number of population 2000 - 2020
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Number of
live-born
child
Year
Total fertility rate 2000 - 2020
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0
20
40
60
80
0 - 14 15 - 64
65+
0 - 14 15 - 64
65+
Czech republic
Slovakia
%
Age
group
Demographic structure of population by age
2000 - 2020
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
14,4
13,3
62,9
56,4
22,7
30,3
0
20
40
60
80
100
2025
2050
%
Year
Demographic structure of EU - prognosis
0 - 14
15 - 64
65+
- 200 -